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Aside from Taiwan, the clearest vision of live music’s post-COVID future might be New Zealand, which has so far managed to stamp out the coronavirus. Government benefits supported the creative community during two tough lockdowns, and now live shows are back as normal, no masks necessary, says veteran Wellington promoter Ian Jorgensen. “Everybody just runs out of their houses, heads into shows, and goes crazy.” But long-term planning is complicated by the ever-present risk of a third lockdown—“like a knife hanging over your head,” Jorgensen says—and touring is strictly domestic. Ben Howe, co-director of the country’s legendary Flying Nun label, says concertgoers have seemed eager at least to pour the money they might have spent on a Foo Fighters stadium gig back into supporting local music instead. “We were incredibly lucky.”
Auckland act the Beths is emblematic of the New Zealand live music scene’s anxious euphoria, where the tension of lockdown is never far from mind. The night before I speak to singer-guitarist Elizabeth Stokes, the Beths win Album of the Year at New Zealand’s annual Aotearoa Music Awards, for their sparkling sophomore album, Jump Rope Gazers. The band recently completed a successful domestic tour, but typically they would support a new LP by touring overseas. During their tour closer on November 6, at the 1,500-capacity Auckland Town Hall, “I played the last song, put the guitar down, and breathed a sigh of relief,” Stokes says. “I looked at the audience and immediately started openly weeping on stage.”
As the plague year of 2020 comes to a close, the questions facing the American live music industry are largely the same as they were back in the spring: Where is the government relief, when is the vaccine arriving en masse, and can what’s left of the live music infrastructure survive until then? The industry’s big players appear to be betting that with millions of vaccine doses expected to be distributed by the spring, live music can resume in the second half of 2021, but probably not much sooner.
In a recent conference call, Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino said that he expects large-scale shows to return next summer. SXSW, which historically happens in March, has gone virtual for 2021. Coachella is still officially scheduled for April, but the clock is ticking, and recent speculation that the event could be postponed again looks increasingly on the money. Bonnaroo has already moved from its planned June dates to the weekend before Labor Day. Miami’s Rolling Loud, previously set for February, has shifted to May. Lollapalooza’s 2021 dates remain unannounced.
“One of the biggest lessons to be learned from the pandemic is you can’t really count on much of anything,” says Ashley Capps, a Bonnaroo co-founder whose Knoxville, Tennessee-based Big Ears Festival recently opted to scrap a full-scale March event in favor of two smaller gatherings later in 2021. But if too many festivals aim for the same time period, the competition for artists could get fierce. “It’s going to be ugly,” says Matthew Morgan, co-founder of Brooklyn’s Afropunk Festival, with a chuckle. “It really is.” Hoping to stay out of the clutter, he teases plans for a new launch in 2022.
Although the long-hoped-for relief package of Save Our Stages still stands a chance of emerging from partisan gridlock, the outlook for independent venues in the U.S. remains dire. Consolidation appears likely. Deeper pockets mean that “when the concert industry does open for business again, Live Nation and AEG will have the smoothest path forward,” as Billboard reported in April. The corporations have even joined forces on their own pandemic relief lobby, #SaveLiveEventsNow, which raised some eyebrows—particularly considering that the National Independent Venue Association said it wasn’t asked to join. Lollapalooza co-founder Marc Geiger has unveiled SaveLive, a $75 million venture that would buy at least 51 percent stakes in dozens of small venues. Some decried the move as predatory, which Geiger and his main investor denied. (Geiger, who has previously done consulting work on Pitchfork’s festivals, declined to comment for this article.) “The sharks are in the water,” offers Vaudeville Mews’ Rossi, but he also admits that the Mews might have taken a hypothetical deal like that, as a last-ditch effort.